Does Rory provide a flicker of hope for the Centre Right in the UK?

Is Rory Stewart’s recent success in campaigning for the Tory leadership a flickering light of hope for the return of a centre right presence in UK politics?  

For the past 3 years, since that referendum on 23 June 2016, Brexit has been the focus of all political discussion.  Deep differences of opinion that have been fermenting in the UK seemed to have gone unnoticed.  Suddenly it is as if a rock was lifted and the thriving and complex life underneath was revealed, as the media attempted to understand how the leave campaign won.  The existence and characteristics of these deep divisions entered the media and public consciousness.  Why hadn't we noticed it before? 

The Brexit referendum did not cause these divisions in public attitudes, it just served to expose them. The media was suddenly aware of the seemingly intractable view-points between people in metropolitan and rural locations, blue collar and white collar workers, those supporting internationalism and those who favour nationalism. This reality burst into the consciousness in the lead up to the vote, when Thomas Mair, a self-radicalised white supremacist, shot and killed the Labour MP Jo Cox.  Ms Cox had campaigned for remaining in the EU and lobbied for a more generous refugee policy.  As Mair stood over his victim’s body, he shouted: “Britain first. Keep Britain independent. This is for Britain.”

Commentators declared the return of the sort of extreme views that were once popular across Europe.  There suddenly seemed to be no shortage of individuals and political parties holding right wing and ultra-nationalist views. These people say they want to maintain or protect their heritage and that of their people.  Refugees, Muslims, empowered women and the EU will, or have already, changed our societies.  That change is seen as a bad thing, which they want to reverse.  The term right-wing generally refers to the conservative or reactionary section of a political party or system.  These groups hold views that favour a return to the status quo or the previous political state of society, which they believe possessed characteristics that are negatively absent from the contemporary society.   Right-wing political views often include the ideas that certain social orders and hierarchies are inevitable, natural, normal, or desirable, typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics or tradition.  Hierarchy and inequality may be viewed as natural results of traditional social differences or the competition in market economies.  The term extreme right-wing has also been applied to movements like fascism, Nazism and racial supremacy.

A variety of fascism favouring governments were formed during the 1930s, in Greece, Lithuania, Poland, and Yugoslavia. The fascist Iron Guard movement in Romania soared in political support during the 1930s.  There were riots in France involving the fascists and multiple far-right suppporters in 1934.  France had two major movements in the Action française and the Jeunesses patriotes (founded by the champagne magnate Pierre Taittinger in 1924 as a direct-action squad of students and youths).  Romania had its National-Christian movement devoted to strikebreaking, disrupting liberal professor’s classes, and campaigning to restrict the number of Jews in universities and the professions. In Britain, Oswald Mosley’s fascist movement was significant in the late 1920s and 1930s.  Spain of course had the Franco government from 1939 to 1947 and Portugal had Salazar, who was Prime Minister from 1932 to 1945; and Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy lasted from 1925 to 1945.  In Germany the Nazi party was formed in 1920 and its popularity and hold over government lasted until the end of WWII.  

The political debates surrounding Brexit have served to show that these sort of ideas are popular again with some, in the UK.  A drift to the extreme right has also been observed in European countries.  Ahead of the European Parliament elections in May 2019, far-right parties throughout Europe were joining forces, forming a new alliance, known as the European Alliance of Peoples and Nations (EAPN). Initiated by Italy’s Interior Minister, EAPN is intended to gather a broad nationalist front in the EU Parliament.  This alliance includes the Netherland's Party for Freedom, Alternative for Germany party, the right-wing populist Danish People’s Party to the Finns Party.  The parties that have joined The Movement are often called “conservative”, “extreme-right”, “nationalist”, “anti-European” or “anti-immigrant”. These right-wing and nationalist parties have gained a sizeable number of seats in the 2019 European Parliament elections.  In the UK, the Brexit Party won the most seats and similar successes for like-minded parties were seen in Italy, France, Poland and Hungary.  Previously, these political parties were forced into some level of cooperation with moderates, while they sat in other parliamentary groups.  Now that they have formed a new alliance, the fear must be that in unity they will become more influential, and more dangerous.  Some of their leaders have already been openly flirting with Nazi-style rhetoric.   The language used by our politicians matters.  It can give hope and create solidarity; it can also do the opposite. 

What is so wrong with the popularity of these political parties? It is because at the heart of their beliefs is the intrinsic hate for and fear of "the other".  They have an open hatred for the EU.  They pose a huge danger to Europe’s future peace and stability.  If there has been one thing that the EU has achieved it is a period of 70 years without a major war like WWII.  The same fear of the other has driven the UK into Brexit.  While many may think choosing to leave the EU was mainly driven by the wish for sovereignty, in fact it has more to do with being able to close the borders to immigrants, thereby "protecting" the UK from these others.  

In amongst all this darkness, over the last few weeks, there came a flickering of something positive, balancing out the political debate.  During the battle for the Conservative leadership, and the Prime Minister’s job, in the UK, a centrist candidate captured the public’s heart.  He’s an unknown, a dark horse, and he is a master communicator.  In a surprise move, the International Development Secretary, Rory Stewart, put himself forward for the top job.  His performance in the campaign has sparked talk of parallels with the remarkable triumph of Emmanuel Macron in France.  

Macron is an independent centrist who has stared down the far-right National Front's Marine le Pen and has continued to defend liberal European values in Europe. But being called a centrist might not sit comfortably with the French President, as he has maintained that the left and right in politics are irrelevant and out of fashion.  His ideas are definitely in line with the centre. He would not accept stigmatising people for their religion, or religious-based bigotry, within France and is an ardent supporter of the EU.  He has called for an "international roadmap" to combat militant Islamism, and described Africa as a region with risks and all opportunities for France. Recent developments have reassured commentators that the centrist movement is also alive and well in Europe.  Macron hosted a meeting with other centrist European political parties in the European Parliament.  These include Spain's Ciudadanos, the Dutch VVD and D66, and Belgium's Open VLD and the Reformist Movement, Germany's Free Democrats, Hungary's Momentum and Austria's New Austria and Liberal Forum (NEOS). This gathering is just a first step, in the view of Macron’s officials.

In the UK, Rory Stewart's profile and popularity surged, in response to traditional Tory messages of fiscal conservatism with modernising ambitions on the environment and investing in the North. His message and style of communication have caught the imagination of the media and public. But is Britain ready for its Macron moment? Apparently not. Such generational changes are usually reserved for the wilderness years of opposition, not at a time when a party and a nation is going through its most challenging moment. Rory was eliminated from the race for the top job, but his impressive performance and growing popularity have placed him in a position of high visibility on the political landscape. Today his colleagues deride him for enjoying support beyond the Tory base and brand him with the ultimate insult of “remainer”. It hasn't gone unnoticed that he shares almost nothing of their values or creed. In short, he was prepared to ask critical questions and to tell the truth.

Australia and Timor-Leste border dispute: can Conciliation help good neighbours stay good friends

Australia and Timor-Leste's dispute over rights to the oil and gas rich reserves of the Timor Sea is now before a Conciliation Commission in the Hague.  Timor-Leste wants to have its maritime boundaries with Australia officially delineated, despite having signed a treaty that puts a 50 year stop on deciding the boundary in 2006.  

Timor-Leste and Australia commenced conciliation proceedings under Article 298 and Annex V of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) , to which both are a signatory. This is the first ever Conciliation process under Article 298 and Annex V of UNCLOS.  The result of this process is likely to have ramifications for Australia's border negotiations with Indonesia. 

Conciliation is one of the methods available under UNCLOS for resolution of disputes.  
Conciliation is a process of dispute resolution, similar to mediation.  It is a voluntary and flexible, interest based process (like mediation)  through which the parties seek to reach an amicable dispute settlement with the assistance of the conciliator, who acts as a neutral third party.

It is not a formal process, (like Arbitration) with arguments being put before a Tribunal, leading to a legally binding decision. In disputes between individuals conciliation is a way of resolving things without the need to go to court. It involves an independent third party (a mediator) who helps both sides come to an agreement. 

For this dispute between countries a Conciliation Commission has been set up of mutually acceptable experts.  The Commission engages with the parties to resolve the issues in question and it may make proposals and recommendations. Australia and Timor-Leste appointed two commissioners each, who  then chose the Chair.  Ambassador Peter Taksøe-Jensen, of Denmark was chosen to Chair, and the other Commissioners are Rosalie Balkin from Australia, Abdul G. Korma of Sierra Leone, Canadian Donald McRae and Rüdiger Wolfram of Germany.  

The Timorese argue that the 2006 treaty should be scrapped on the grounds that it was disadvantaged during the negotiations because Australia had bugged Timorese cabinet rooms during negotiations.

Australia and Timor Leste - who should decide?

If, like me, you have been wondering on who would best decide on the maritime border dispute between Australia and Timor Leste, we may soon have the answer. Timor Leste has asked the UN to do just that, but the question remains - by what mechanism?  I read recently that Timor-Leste has launched a compulsory conciliation process under the 1982 UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  Its aim is to get Australia to the negotiating table in order to conclude an agreement on permanent maritime boundaries.

Part IX of UNCLOS provides that the conciliation procedure can be used where one party in the dispute has withdrawn from the UNCLOS compulsory dispute settlement procedures (as Australia did in 2002), two months before Timor-Leste’s independence.  Australia has refused to accept that a binding settlement on sea boundaries should be decided by international tribunal. But under the conciliation process, a commission would hear the parties arguments and both would then be obliged to negotiate in good faith on the basis of its report, which (while not binding) carries political pressure.

Part XV of UNCLOS requires Parties to settle their disputes by the peaceful means indicated in the UN Charter. However, if that fails to reach a settlement, they are obliged to resort to the compulsory dispute settlement procedures entailing binding decisions, subject to certain limitations and exceptions. 

Article 298 allows exceptions for three types of disputes and only disputes concerning sea boundary delimitation are subject to compulsory conciliation.  A State making an Article 298 declaration is also obliged to submit to conciliation. However, excluded from this obligation are disputes that arose before the entry into force of UNCLOS. So,… is this a dispute that arose before the entry into force of UNCLOS? That is a very good question!

The question of delimitation of the maritime boundaries in the Timor Sea came up when Portugal withdrew as administering authority and Indonesia subsequently annexed East Timor in 1975.  Australia’s recognition of Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor in 1979 paved the way for negotiations between Australia and Indonesia on the area known as the ‘Timor Gap’ which had been left undelimited by the 1972 seabed treaty between Australia and Indonesia.

As Australia and Indonesia could not agree on a permanent seabed boundary, they entered into a joint development agreement which provisionally dealt with the area in dispute, called the ‘Timor Gap Treaty’. Upon East Timor’s independence on 20 May 2002, Australia and East Timor signed the ‘Timor Sea Treaty’ which entered into force in April 2003. It also created a joint development area to enable exploitation to continue pending final delimitation of the maritime boundary.

It is quite clear that there was a dispute between Australia and Indonesia in that each State’s claim regarding the boundary was opposed by the other. But is the current dispute with East Timor is merely a continuation of that old dispute with Indonesia and thus as a past dispute excluded from the UNCLOS compulsory conciliation, or whether East Timor’s independence creates a break in the chain. 

The effect of state succession on the question of ‘past disputes’ has not been tested. However, as a new State is involved in the matter, its likely to be considered a new dispute. So the case is unlikely to qualify for exclusion on this basis.

In the event that all the prerequisite requirements were to be satisfied, and if none of the exclusions apply, conciliation can be instituted, by written notification addressed by one party to the dispute to the other party or parties. The other party to the dispute is obliged to submit to such proceedings. The conciliation commission can be established under Article 3 of Annex V whether or not the other party is willing to cooperate in the appointment of the members of the commission.  The commission is required to report within 12 months of its constitution.  However, even if all this occurs, here's the clincher the report of the commission, including its conclusions and recommendations, is not binding upon the parties. Analysts say that such a report would carry with it significant political pressure.

East Timor-Australia maritime border to be negotiated before United Nations: Careful what you wish for

Reports about my hospitalisation for post Easter stomach-pumping have been greatly exaggerated. Who knew that the human body had an upper limit of tolerance for chocolate?

My physician has advised a drastic reduction in chocolate consumption - impossible when you live in Switzerland.  It seems that my dream of living inside chocolate heaven and eating my way out would has a dark side.

So what else has been going on in the world ..... there have been developments on my favourite maritime border dispute with huge implications for oil and gas resources in Australia. It looks like East Timor is going to get what they have wished for.  Today Matthew Doran writes in SMH that Timor is taking Australia to the United Nations to solve the dispute over its maritime border under international maritime law. Timor has long argued current arrangements mean it is missing out on billions of dollars in revenue from offshore oil and gas fields. It has now approached the UN to begin a formal conciliation process conducted by an independent panel of experts.

Timor has been trying to wriggle out of its current Treaty arrangements and to settle the border dispute for some time. There have been a number of protest rallies in East Timor, the last  one reportedly taking place on 30 March, according to the SMH and the Guardian.  The Timorese claim that they have lost $6.6 billion in oil and gas revenues to Australia under the current Treaty arrangements for resource sharing. Instead, Timor believes that if the maritime boundary was at the half way point between the two countries, most of the oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea would lie within their territory.  In response, there is no particular response from the Australian government, who is happy to talk but not about the border dispute.  Julie Bishop was busy touring Indonesia and opening the new embassy building in Jakarta, the largest constructed by Australia. DFAT updated its travel advice on 21 March (asking travellers to exercise a high degree of caution). Apparently, some some embassy employees from Dili got gardening leave back in Canberra.  Never mind, they can enjoy, along with Witness K, the Kingston cafes and the balmy autumn sunshine that Canberra is known for at this time of year.

Why is this all so hard? Well, Timor believes if the maritime boundary was decided under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),  most of the oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea would lie within their territory.  However, Australia has withdrawn from the maritime boundary jurisdiction of UNCLOS.  In 2002 Australia made a declaration excluding the setting of maritime boundaries from compulsory dispute resolution, the view being that any maritime boundary dispute is best settled by negotiation rather than litigation.

So what does that mean? - a Convention is an agreement between countries, usually developed by the UN or other international organizations. Governments that ratify Conventions have to incorporate them into their own (domestic) laws and to make sure that they are applied and respected. At the time of agreeing to a Convention, Governments can also say that they do not agree with certain parts of its text.  These are called distinctions, restrictions, exclusions, etc.  So even once ratified, Conventions will not apply to exclusions.  This means that although Australia applies UNCLOS, they do not agree that those mechanisms described in it, will be applied by Australia for maritime boundary issues.  This is important for this case,  because the first problem to be solved is to decide who can make the decision on where the border between Australia and East Timor lies.

Lets face it, I could make the decision, but nobody would listen to me - so it has to be an authority that both sides will respect.  Timor latest attempt is to ask the UN to begin a formal conciliation process conducted by an independent panel of experts.
So watch this space...  This opens up a whole lot of other questions - like how will this panel operate, who is qualified to be on this panel, and is it possible for Timor to get a better deal than they already have... and  many more.

Browse, North West Shelf back on the shelf - implications for other possible white elephants

Australia's hopes of the resources boom continuing have well and truly faded.  There was further bleak news with the announcement by Woodside and its energy giant partners, last week that they would put the $40 billion Browse back on the shelf, indefinitely.  Pardon the pun! Its no joke.

The North West Shelf is an extensive oil and gas region off the coast of Western Australia, in the Indian Ocean.  The region has estimated hydrocarbon reserves of 33 trillion cubic feet (930 km3).  It is Australia’s largest resource development project and has a considerable number of oil and gas wells, pipelines, production areas and support facilities.  It involves the extraction of petroleum at offshore production platforms, onshore processing and production and export of liquefied natural gas. This was the largest engineering project in the world in the early 1980’s with investments so far of around $A 25 billion.  Only about one third of the reserve is estimated to have been produced to date. Woodside is the project operator, along with five other partners: BHP Billiton; BP; Chevron; Royal Dutch Schell (which also owns 24% of Woodside through Shell Australia); Japan Australian LNG (a venture between Mitsubishi and Mitsui).  There's a nice map on Wikipedia.

The main reason given for this delay is the current low oil price and the LNG price in a similar slump, combined with the large volumes of LNG currently coming onto the market from other Australian projects.  Large volumes are also expected from the US in the coming years.  The circumstances have conspired to create a situation of over-supply and weak demand.

A recent report in the International NY Times (INYT) suggests that similar shelving could be on the cards for other 'potential white elephant' projects in Canada and Mozambique, for example.  The INYT also reports that Australia's woes have been exacerbated by an LNG price war with Qatar, and predicts that demand for LNG will not improve until after 2023.

Those following this blog would know of my preoccupation with the development of the Greater Sunrise area.  My recent prediction that the joint development between Australia and Timor L'Este is likely to languish in the ‘too hard’ basket, or the 'white elephant' basket, might just come true.  I said in my previous post, some commentators are projecting that thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil available – but no buyers. Maybe we won't have to wait that long for that to be a reality.

Australia and Timor-Leste: a brawl between neighbours or rules-based international order?

The debate about Australia's border dispute with Timor-Leste continues to entice bloggers, reporters, experts and others to put forward emotional positions.

These are based on imagination and occasionally rational thought and sometimes (very rarely) on principles of international law.  

Australia says it is committed to rules-based international order, according to Prime Minister Turnbull.  Unilateral actions are in nobody’s interest. They are a threat to the peace and good order of the region on which the economic growth and national security of all our neighbours depend. These differences should be resolved by international law.  

He might have been talking about the border dispute with Timor-Leste.

Allastar Cox says that Australia's treaties with Timor-Leste in fact form part of the Government's commitment to a rules-based international system. 

It was a Super Tuesday!

Hillary Clinton strengthened her momentum, with a  sweep of the Southern states on Super Tuesday.  Democratic delegate count for Hillary = 1,121 compared to 481 for Sanders. 

Republican delegate count for Trump = 382, putting him ahead of his rivals making him the favourite for the nomination.  

You wouldn't really know how Super the result was for Clinton from most media headlines. That's why I like to look at the impeccably accurate Washington Post and the Guardian.

Who would make the best President for the energy industry?

Hillary Clinton has been cited as being against offshore oil drilling, against the Keystone XL pipeline, and against drilling in the Arctic. 
Should Clinton become president, she may be inclined towards new regulations that may harm utilities, conventional energy companies, and would support environmental policies and support alternative energy - solar and wind power companies.  
This suggests a negative impact on conventional energy firms and boosting prospects for investors in the alternative energy sector.

Donald Trump is on record as wanting to confront OPEC and making the U.S. energy independent. He is a vocal advocate for oil and its importance to the U.S. economy. A Trump presidency would boost prospects for investors in most conventional energy companies, with a negative impact on the alternative energy sector.

Oilprice.com also discusses the implications of other candidates policies. 

Australia and East Timor: this dispute between neighbours seemingly without end. Will the sun rise over Sunrise or is the gap too wide?

Protesters have gathered outside Australia's embassy in Dili  demanding an end to the dispute with Timor-Leste over undersea oil and gas fields, according to the SMH. 

The dispute is about who owns the highly valued oil and gas reserves under the sea between these two neighbours.  It goes back to the 2002 Timor Sea Treaty (TST) and the 2006 Treaty on Certain Maritime Arrangements in the Timor Sea (CMATS).  Timor-Leste maintains that the second Treaty was invalid because Australia had bugged the cabinet room in Dili during the negotiations in 2004, and so managed to get the wording to favour Australia.  Anthony Bergin's piece from 2013, has a good summary of the history.

Each word in these Treaties is very important to both countries because they form the basis on which highly valuable offshore oil and gas resources in the Greater Sunrise area will be shared. Bergin's view is that, although Timor-Leste had the option of cancelling the Treaty, it decided to try to secure a decision that it had never really existed, thus allowing the possibility for permanently resolving the maritime boundaries. These have never been fully settled, and theTreaties do not resolve it. 

According to treaty law, under Article 49 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (to which both Australia and Timor-Leste are party): 

a state that is induced to conclude a treaty by the fraudulent conduct of a negotiating state may invoke the fraud to invalidate its consent to be bound by the treaty.  

Spying to gain advantage in treaty negotiations may be defined as deceitful behaviour. What is not certain is whether this deceitful behaviour actually induced Timor-Leste to enter the CMATS treaty.  If Timor is able to prove deceitful inducement, that may be a way out.  Australia might also have the dubious distinction of being the first known state to have a treaty declared invalid on account of fraud, according to Professor Don Anton in ASIL.

This is just the latest lump of mud to be slung across the fence between these two neighbours.  Back in 2011, New Matilda published accusations based on information from Wikileaks, that Australia had deliberately incited unrest in Timor-Leste, for its own ends.  As they say, good fences make good neighbours, but these two have not yet agreed where the fence should be built.   

Since it is Australia's position that it is not valid for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to decide on such disputes or for them to be settled through the dispute settlement provisions of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC), Timor's only option was to invoke the TST dispute settlement provisions to challenge its own consent to the CMATS treaty.

Timor brought a dispute to the ICJ at The Hague in January 2014. The ICJ is the principal judicial organ of the UN, established to adjudicate on disputes between States. In March 2014, the ICJ ordered that certain documents apparently taken from Timor-Leste by Australian security should be kept 'under seal'. It seems that on 3 December 2013 Australian security had seized documents and data from the offices of Timor's legal representative.  

Could there be smoke for Timor's accusation of espionage during Treaty negotiations? 

In September 2014, it was agreed to suspend the ICJ proceedings and instead to proceed with settlement negotiations. In March 2015, Australia agreed to return the documents in question and did just that in May 2015.  In turn, Timor-Leste asked the ICJ to discontinue the case, on 11 June 2015.  There's a good time-line of events on Lexology. 

But, that as not the end of it! On September 24th 2015, the Timor government submitted another dispute to an arbitration Tribunal.  This issue is not going to be over this year and certainly not before February 2017.The CMATS Treaty can be terminated if a development plan for the Greater Sunrise area has not been approved within six years of the entry into force of the Treaty.  That deadline passed in 2013 and Timor could have terminated CMATS.  CMATS can also be terminated if production from Greater Sunrise has not commenced within ten years of its entry into force.  Since CMATS was brought into force on Friday 23 February 2007, that 10 years won't be up until February 2017. That is just one important date in this story!

The duration of CMATS is until 2057, and because it piggy backs onto TST, it also extends the TST until 2057.  Significantly, it also establishes a moratorium on claims to sovereign rights and jurisdiction and maritime boundaries for the period of the treaty and excuses the parties from any obligation to negotiate in good faith over permanent boundaries until 2057.  These arrangements do not sit comfortably with Timor, so they are trying to get out!

If they secured a ruling that CMATS was never valid, what would Timor do then? For one, it would be possible to re-negotiate resource exploitation arrangements and possibly with a different partner.

Commentators say that everything hinges on settling the unresolved boundary dispute. Last November Reuters also reported that Timor is unhappy with the split of taxes it gets from current production.  This part of the dispute relates to the pipeline which goes to the refining plant in Darwin. The refining operations are where the real money and economic development comes from.

So, Timor wants the border to be half way mark between it and Australia, but Australia wants it to follow the line of its Continental Shelf.  In 2008 Australia got a a ruling from the UN on the size of its continental shelf from the CLCS, (the UN's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which administers the LOSC).  This ruling was made on the basis of geological evidence that Australia's continental shelf extends farther than previously defined. The implications being that any border between the two is a lot closer to Timor's mainland and therefore gives Australia greater proportion of the shared resources under the sea.  For Timor this line is an uncomfortable fit.

Opening the border dispute might result in an uncomfortable result for all.  There are fears that it may also prompt Indonesia to enter the conversation, and possibly even gain ownership of the oil fields in question. Its a risky move for a number of reasons. Invalidating CMATS would not provide an incentive to develop Greater Sunrise area, in my view, it’s more likely to result in the development languishing in the ‘too hard’ basket, or there might just be a lack of interest.   

As I said in my previous post, some commentators are projecting that thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil available – but no buyers!

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The full text of  CMATS can be found on austlii.

Is the party over? Australian oil and gas companies report huge losses

Is the golden age of the oil and gas industry almost over? ...

Looking at the downturn in global oil prices it might seem that way for Australia.

Oil and gas companies are reporting losses, the industry is shedding jobs and oil prices continue to
decline.

Production was 7% up for the year but because of the lower crude prices, profits are down according to Santos, as they posted a 99% fall in profits for the 12 months to December 2015. The dramatic fall in profit also includes write downs on various assets of A$3.92bn over the year, according to the BBC.

They're not the only ones! 

Recently the BBC reported that Woodside put its dramatic decline in profits down to the global fall in oil prices (down by over 45% in 2015).

Is this a case of price fluctuations due to global political manoeuvring, inappropriate regulation crippling the industry in Australia, or is the oil age coming to an end because of a lack of demand?

Royal Dutch Shell is laying off thousands of workers and its chief executive is preparing the company to try and be profitable if there is an extended period of low oil prices according to City A.M. If you look at all the major oil and gas players, in Australia they have shed a good number of employees, according to Peter Botten, Managing director of the Australian listed Oil Search, in an interview with the ABC. He says that a quarter of the oil and gas industry jobs have gone (during 2015) based on numbers of employees employed directly by oil and gas companies.

A year ago, the news of world oil price falls were shocking (as oil prices fell from over $100 to around $50 a barrel). Because there was so much being pumped out of the ground and not enough industrial demand in the world to use it all – people thought this dip in prices would be temporary.

But those hopes have now faded!

Some cmmentators have projected that thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers.

Oil will be left in the ground.
The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.





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Note: How is the global crude price decided? Brent crude has overtaken WTI as the global crude price index, as Energy and Capital Explains. International benchmark Brent crude this morning is up by around two per cent at $33.08, however US West Texas Intermediate jumped by over over four per cent to $32.84, up from under $30 at the close of oil trading on Friday 19th February 2016, according to City A.M. comparing the current price comparing the two benchmarks.





Blogs/Links:

Oil and Gas Investor

The Barrel Blog

The Oil and Gas Journal has a good list of blogs

A list of the 6 Best Oil and Gas Websites

The Oil Drum Discussion page

Commodity HQ has a list of 7 crude oil trading blogs

SherWare has a list of 5 favourite blogs

Peter Leeds has a list of Oil and Gas Blogs and News websites

New Year's resolutions

Because its that time of the year and people are working on their resolutions, here's one I found, from blogger Simply Seleta that's as good as any.  

If nothing else works and life gets you down, simply wear the pearls. 


Another piece of wisdom I also like

... and one I am really trying to do: 








that one I really believe.... energy is magic. 

Speaking of magic, recently I started eating quinoa, obviously with other foods, and honestly its really tasty and versatile and I'm told really healthy. Told by people like the inspiring Julie Montagu .. I am making her kale chips recipe as we speak.... 

So what if seizing Assange breaks international law???

So what if seizing Assange breaks international law??? 

Where is the police force that's going to police the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations?  

There are a lot of stories about what will happen to Julian Assange and some commentators are suggesting that the UK government could find itself hauled before an international court if it moves in on the Ecuadorian embassy where WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been granted political asylum.

There have been a number of options/scenarios speculated upon as ways out of Assange.   Assange could just stay put in the hope that the situation he is facing will eventually get resolved, either politically or through Sweden dropping the case.  Provided British authorities choose not to storm the Ecuador embassy, waiting it out could be an option for Assange, says Prof Don Rothwell of the ANU.

The rules governing the rights of foreign embassies were set out in the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations international treaty, of which US is a signatory. This particular situation is complicated by a domestic law, the Diplomatic and Consular Premises Act of 1987. It was enacted after shots were fired from the Libyan People's Bureau in Central London in the 1980s.  This law could allow Assange to be arrested within the embassy premises, according to CBC News.  

Don Rothwell thinks otherwise. The legislation refers to considerations of national security but the other grounds wouldn't seem to have any relevance. So national security is clearly a fairly high threat, it would clearly be associated with terrorist related type incidents. But, Mr Assange's situation does not seem to have reached that level. 

This situation raises many questions, like - what is the status of the obligations/rules under the Treaty vs the obligations/rules under the domestic law, for one?  This is where the rubber hits the road.  

The way this issue is resolved will have an impact on diplomacy and the rights/protections afforded to diplomats in foreign countries.  It could have wider repercussions in setting a precedent about domestic law status in relation to international law.  Sometimes Australia looks to UK court decisions in actions, so these events are not only of relevance to that country, but could have wider implications.

Should the UK take the action it seems intent on, it could breach the major rule in international law - the inviolability of embassies.  In response Ecuador could take matter to the International Court of Justice.  

Individuals can't bring an action to the International Court of Justice, so those reports about Julian Assange having the option of going to the ICJ, are ill-informed.  The other country that could go to the ICJ is Australia, if it wanted to. This seems unlikely, as the Government has shown no interest.  Sweden, of course could also bring this matter to an end very quickly, if it wanted to.

The sky was so beautiful today, I just had to take a picture of it  

This was around 3pm, allegedly it was 11oC out, but I suspect it was warmer.  Ever since I've given up the dreaded institutional confinement of employment I have been like a prisoner released, looking up at the sky regularly, throwing my arms open to the world and smiling.

Today clocked in 40 minutes of intermittent running.  Ever since starting the regular running experience, I have used more band aids than in my whole life combined before that.  Its the only way to  prevent blisters.  I don't know why, well, I do - my feet are so delicate - but if I don't put them on my toes I end up suffering.

This isn't the blog of one of those triumphantly enthusiastic runners.  I am at the stage of running for 200 paces and then walking then running for 200 paces and so on.  You have to start somewhere, and this is where I'm starting.  Kelly Killoren Bensimon says - take 20 minutes a day and be playful. Actually she suggests a 20 minute jog a day to stay in shape.

At this stage, three times a week is what I'm aiming for.  Three times a week to just enjoy the sky, the air and the neighbourhood - what a joy!

weekend sale

There's only one reason to ever go to Queanbeyan and the Fink seconds sale is it.

http://www.finkdesign.com/products/designerware.html

Zagreb j'taime

There's another name to add to Paris Tokyo New York street fashions - its Zagreb.  First check out the pictures of this stylish old lady on styletone and then check out the street styles!

Did Australia incite unrest in Timor Leste

Why would Australia do that?


I suspected the government were evil, but I didn't realise they were this evil
according to new matilda
citing  a wikileaks source from a cable from the US embassy in Lisbon well and truly sticking the boot in!!!


What's it all about Alfie???

Resources, resources, resources, of course.

Prevent an environmental disaster raise the profile for the need to clean up the seas around Chuuk lagoon

Lush vegetation and simple living punctuate the lives of the lagoon. Fishing, weaving and tending garden supplant the subsistence lives that many sustain on their individual islands. It is not unusual to see women waist deep in the mangroves hunting for a special delicacy or men walking the reefs by torchlight at night looking for baby octopus. Boat makers create vessels high in the hills of the inner islands and take them down to sea when finished. Open hearth fires are still used to cook the daily meals. Life here is close to nature and lived in conjunction with the land and the sea. Local carvers are also famous for using beautiful local woods to carve warrior masks and busts. 


Chuuk, with its vast, shallow, beautiful lagoon is a Mecca for wreck divers. A major shipwreck site from WWII, Truk Lagoon is unquestionably the world's best shipwreck diving destination. Here, more than 50 hulks have been transformed into shipreefs, holding the very best of the undersea world and maritime history at one site. Hard and soft corals in a kaleidoscope of colors and shapes attract divers worldwide for both daytime and night diving. The vast selection of artifacts still found on the wrecks after five decades are testament to the unique history of the Micronesian Islands. The historical aspect of Truk Lagoon is not totally hidden by the jungles. Japanese lighthouses, perched high atop the lagoon's finest overlooks, can be reached by hiking or driving. Old runways, command centers, gun emplacements, cave networks, hospitals and libraries can be found with the help of a knowledgeable guide. from the Chuuk tourist website


Now here comes the thud down to earth "To compare the Exxon Valdez with the wrecks in Chuuk Lagoon is not stretching the bow too far because the Exxon Valdez was basically out in an open ocean environment or estuary area, Chuuk Lagoon is a coral reef system and to have the sudden release of thousands of tonnes of toxic oil sludge on these pristine shores would be utterly devastating and would ruin the whole island’s economy for generations to come.” Ian McLeod, corrosion expert WA Museum. Source: Foreign Correspondent, ABC TV.

Teenage Angst taken to extremes

What was he thinking? Didn't Sid Vicious do this first?
 New York Daily News

You say distractions, I say destructions... let's call the whole thing off!

In this day and age there are so many demands on our time; so many entertainments and distractions in the form of  information technology and other people and work demands and even demands that come from arrangements we have entered into willingly.  Its hard to keep up with them all, and sometimes there is overload and all I want to do is to pull the doona over my head and go back to sleep.


But there is an answer for me.  I can learn from Reggie's example.

After all the years he has been on this planet, stumbling about, Reggie has learned that when he keeps on top of the little things in his life - at least the ones that are within his control, he is better equipped to also manage the bigger challenges that inevitably come his way.  These things don't take much time and you will feel more in control of your life if you do them.

Thank you Reggie Darling! Now everyone can share these gems from the wonderful New York social diary which never ceases to entertain, enlighten and uplift.

Life in the fast lane...

So there I was minding my own business, in the supermarket and waiting for my turn to put my groceries through and I witnessed a very worrying event in front of me.  There was a woman with a lot of groceries going through.  The last of her groceries was bread and biscuits. The woman behind her had a few things and they were in a carry basked.  So she kept pushing her basket into the other woman's bread.  She did it once, and then again, and eventually she was seen, and she said something to the woman in front of her.  Then when that woman wasn't looking she did it again.  I just happen to notice, and I had to look away so they couldn't see me smirking about it.   Then the first woman whose groceries had finally all gone through lent back and said something to the woman behind her, and while they were talking she reached over and squeezed the woman's bread.  She really gave it a good squeeze.
It was hilarious!
I don't know what she was saying to the woman who was directly in front of me, but she kind of reeled back, but it was a full line, and there was nowhere to go.
It was hilarious!
Afterwards the woman in front of me put her groceries through and she had this sad crestfallen look on her face.  There was no opportunity to change her now quite deformed loaf of bread, so she just had to take it.
That was hilarious!
Sadly, it reminded me of how we are now in an age of not only traffic rage, but supermarket rage!

Bora Bora Je T'aime

Turtle and fish soup!

Amazing cloud formation over the mountain on the main island 

Creature lurking under the cabin

Looking back at our cabins and towards the 'main island' from le plage

Looking over at the neighbours

The view from our over water bungalow